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England vs. Germany Predictions, Betting Tips and Previews

28 June 2021

Tuesday 29 June

Wembley Stadium – Euro 2020

Leon Goretzka celebrates scoring for Germany against Hungary Source: (Chine Nouvelle/SIPA/Shutterstock)

One of the highlights of the last 16 at Euro 2020 sees old rivals England and Germany collide at Wembley on Tuesday. The mood around both countries is very different as we look ahead to the football betting online for this massive encounter.

Past Meetings

These countries have shared some historic moments down the years, not least in the 1966 World Cup Final, the semi-finals of Italia 90 and Euro 2016, and the last 16 of the 2010 World Cup. They haven’t met since a pair of friendlies in 2017. Germany beat England 1-0 in Dortmund before a goalless draw back in London later in the year.

The Three Lions came back from two goals down to win a friendly the year before 3-2, in what’s only England’s second victory over the Germans in seven attempts since their memorable 5-1 triumph in Munich in qualifying for the 2002 World Cup.

Team News

Gareth Southgate is unlikely to start with Mason Mount and Ben Chilwell, after the duo’s controversial period of covid-enforced isolation which followed their brush with Scotland’s Billy Gilmour. The pair have been forced to train away from the main squad until the day before this game, with Luke Shaw likely to continue at left-back and the impressive Jack Grealish hoping for another start.

Joachim Löw has two injury concerns ahead of this game. RB Leipzig defender Lukas Klostermann is expected to miss out with a hamstring problem, while Borussia Mönchengladbach midfielder Jonas Hofmann has a knee injury and is also a doubt. Thomas Müller is hoping for a recall to the starting XI, along with Leon Goretzka after his goalscoring heroics sent Germany into the last 16.

England vs. Germany Preview and Predictions

The latest instalment of this fierce rivalry promises to be seismic on many different levels. Can Southgate hatch a game plan which helps England see off Germany, ending Löw’s remarkable 15-year career as Die Mannschaft coach in the process?

Southgate has certainly taken a pragmatic, considered approach to this tournament so far. Dare you say it, England’s performances have been reminiscent of Germany teams of yesteryear in their approach. The Three Lions have been efficient, relying on keeping clean sheets through dogged defensive responsibility and a strong team ethic, at the expense of fluid attacking play.

The big question ahead of this game is whether England stick with the 4-3-3 formation they’ve adopted through the group stage, or if they decide to match up the Germans’ 3-5-2 system by also playing with wing-backs. The tactical battle promises to be fascinating, while the Germany team which shows up will also dictate how this game pans out.

If Die Mannschaft put in the kind of performance they produced in beating Portugal 4-2 in the group stages, they could prove excellent value as the 2.90 underdogs. However, the Germans produced few chances against France in their group opener, and they toiled and trailed for much of their game against Hungary, eventually drawing 2-2.

Another group-stage exit would’ve been a huge embarrassment for Germany, despite the tough nature of their group. England, on the other hand, were rarely threatened as they kept three clean sheets on the way to beating Croatia and the Czech Republic 1-0 in Group D, along with the goalless draw against Scotland.

It’s rare for the Three Lions to start as the favourites against Germany, but with home advantage at Wembley, they are 2.55 for the win. The draw after 90 minutes is 3.20, sending the game to extra-time with the potential for penalties. England are 1.83 to win by any method, with the Germans 1.95 for the same bet.

Recommended Bets

England to win 1-0 at 7.50

The Three Lions have displayed a newfound pragmatism through this tournament so far, with Southgate and his staff recognising the success in previous tournaments of teams who base their tactics around a strong defence and clean sheets.

Score draw at 4.65

It’s not hard to envisage this game going to extra-time, given the history between these teams. It is a little hard to imagine the tie finishing goalless though, with a score draw the likelier outcome should this match progress to an additional period and maybe even penalties.